Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

"Superforecasters" are people who perform significantly better than so-called "experts" when predicting future events.

What makes superforecasters so unique? What characteristics and skills make their predictions more accurate than those of other people?

Philip Tetlock, professor of psychology and political science, has been investigating this question. In a large-scale research study, the Good Judgement Project, he and his team had laypeople and experts make predictions and used scientific methods to test their accuracy. In this book, he presents the results.

Superforecasters take in a lot of information before coming to a judgment. They are self-critical, aware of cognitive biases, and therefore always look at an issue from different perspectives.

They make concrete – and above all verifiable – statements such as "The event will occur in the next 24 months with a probability of 65%". Moreover, they are not afraid to constantly check their forecasts and correct them if necessary.

Nevertheless, they are not "superhumans". Forecasting is a skill that can be learned and constantly optimized.

Experts, on the other hand, use vague terms such as "certain", "probable", "seriously", and rarely specify a time horizon. In this way, they leave a lot of room for their predictions to be interpreted as correct in retrospect. However, this is usually not necessary since hardly anyone checks the expert statements afterward.

Thanks to many anecdotes, the book is very entertaining and reads smoothly. Even if it is not a classic self-help guide (presumably not every reader wants to become a superforecaster), it helps us critically examine the countless "expert forecasts" with which the media confront us daily.

After all, it is precisely the media-savvy experts, brimming with self-confidence, who are usually dead wrong.

🎧 Suitable as an audiobook? Yes, absolutely.

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Genres

Decision Making Critical Thinking Psychology Behavioral Economics Social Psychology